Morocco: sharp decline in growth and acceleration of inflation in 2022

Economic growth in Morocco for the year 2022 would experience a “significant drop” and would not exceed 0.7%, while the inflation rate should experience “a strong acceleration”, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) said on Tuesday in a press release.

“The agricultural campaign should record a cereal production of around 25 million quintals, after 103.2 million quintals a year earlier. The agricultural value added should thus fall by 19.8%, bringing economic growth down to 0.7 % in 2022 after a rebound which would have reached 7.3% in 2021”, indicates the Council of the central bank of Makhzen at the end of its first session of the year 2022.

The Council has noted that “inflation continues to accelerate, which began in 2021, driven by external pressures linked to soaring prices for energy and food products and rising inflation in the main economic partners”.

Thus, after a rate of 1.4% in 2021, inflation “should stand at 4.7% in 2022”, according to the press release, adding that “the underlying component of inflation would increase by 1.7% at 4.7%”.

The BAM predicts that, mainly due to the surge in commodity prices, “the current account deficit will widen to 5.5% of GDP in 2022 after 2.6% in 2021”.

According to the same forecasts, “Imports would increase by 14.9% in 2022 in connection with the increase in the energy bill and the increase in the purchase of agricultural and food products and consumer goods”.

Ahmed Achour