Algeria’s Cereal Production, Imports, and Consumption Forecasts: Insights from USDA Report

BY: Dr. Hana Saada

Algiers, Algeria | October 9th, 2024 — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released a comprehensive forecast in early October detailing Algeria’s cereal sector. The report predicts that Algeria’s cereal production and planted area will remain stable, while wheat imports are expected to reach over 9 million metric tons for the 2023/2024 season. Though a slight decline in imports is anticipated for 2024/2025, import levels will remain high compared to the average over the past five years, largely driven by modest domestic harvests and the government’s desire to build strategic reserves.

The USDA’s projections indicate that Algeria will maintain over 2 million hectares (ha) dedicated to wheat cultivation for the 2023/24 and 2024/25 seasons, with barley covering an additional 1 million ha. These figures align with estimates from the Ministry of Agriculture, which conducted an agricultural census from June to August 2024. Agriculture Minister Youcef Chorfa announced in September 2024 that 3.069 million ha would be devoted to cereals, with durum wheat and barley making up 85% of the planted area. The remaining land is earmarked for soft wheat and oats, supporting the government’s ambitious goal of achieving self-sufficiency in durum wheat by 2025.

Efforts to expand cereal cultivation into Algeria’s southern desert regions are also highlighted in the report. Over 1 million ha are expected to be prepared for agriculture by 2028, with 500,000 ha allocated for wheat and barley. These initiatives are aimed at bolstering food security and reducing reliance on imports. Despite challenges from a hot climate unsuitable for soft wheat cultivation, which makes barley and durum wheat the primary crops, the USDA forecasts a production of 3 million metric tons of wheat and 1.2 million metric tons of barley for the 2024/25 season.

Challenges and Opportunities in the Cereal Market

The USDA report emphasizes that Algeria’s wheat consumption remains among the highest in North Africa. Bread, a staple of the Algerian diet, is heavily subsidized by the government, keeping prices low and consumption steady. Despite economic fluctuations, wheat demand has been resilient, though the government has encouraged citizens to reduce bread consumption to curb food waste. Consumption for the 2024/25 season is expected to rise slightly to 11.35 million metric tons, driven by population growth.

To counterbalance domestic production challenges, Algeria has been systematically increasing its wheat reserves since the COVID-19 pandemic, with stocks projected to reach 6.9 million metric tons for the 2024/25 season. Importantly, the USDA report notes that Algeria has diversified its wheat sources, with Russia emerging as a key supplier due to a relaxation of import standards. Although the European Union remains a significant supplier, its share has been challenged by increased competition from Russia, Canada, Mexico, and Turkey.

Looking forward, President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has reaffirmed his commitment to achieving self-sufficiency in durum wheat by 2025, while continuing efforts to expand irrigated agricultural land. However, USDA data shows that imports of durum wheat have continued to rise, with the country importing over 2.64 million metric tons for the 2023/24 season. Durum wheat imports, primarily from Canada, Mexico, and the U.S., have surged due to recent drought-affected harvests, and they are expected to remain elevated unless domestic production significantly improves.

Barley and Maize Imports Remain Essential

Barley, mainly used for animal feed, has seen consistent consumption levels, with imports expected to remain stable at 600,000 metric tons for the 2024/25 season. The USDA report attributes this stability to both steady demand for livestock feed and the anticipated fluctuations in domestic production, which remains vulnerable to adverse weather conditions.

Meanwhile, maize imports are expected to return to pre-pandemic levels, as the government continues to navigate the challenges posed by global supply disruptions and the ongoing conflict in the Black Sea region. As Algeria continues to focus on enhancing food security and expanding storage capacity, it remains reliant on external sources to meet its cereal needs.

Translated from: 

Algérie : les prévisions de production, d’importation et de consommation de céréales, selon l’USDA

 

 

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