Climate Fluctuations Exacerbate Vital Sectors in Morocco

BY: Dr. Hana Saada

ALGIERS- Recent climate fluctuations in Morocco have posed significant threats to vital sectors, including agriculture, the economy, and housing. Between droughts and floods, the country’s stability and development are increasingly at risk.

Just two weeks ago, heavy rainfall in northern Morocco led to devastating floods, causing considerable material damage. This comes at a time when the agricultural season is facing delayed rainfall, raising concerns about another year of drought that could negatively impact the backbone of the kingdom’s economy—agriculture.

The sharp climate fluctuations in Morocco are attributed by Moroccan experts to global phenomena such as “El Niño” and global warming. Aziz Bentaleb, an environmental researcher, attributes Morocco’s susceptibility to climate fluctuations to its geographic location in Africa, which is influenced by desert climate effects.

Bentaleb explained that both natural and human factors contribute to these fluctuations. Natural factors include phenomena like “El Niño,” which affects ocean temperatures and atmospheric pressures, leading to climatic changes. Human factors, such as industrialization contributing to global warming, also play a role by raising temperatures and reducing rainfall.

El Niño is a natural phenomenon that occurs every 4 to 12 years, raising surface water temperatures in the ocean, generating warm masses and currents in tropical regions, and causing climate changes.

Bentaleb further elaborated, “There are also human causes, such as pressure on natural resources and industrial activities contributing to global warming, which leads to rising temperatures alongside reduced rainfall.”

On a global scale, Hussein Youabid, head of communications at the General Directorate of Meteorology, noted that the spring season often sees significant weather fluctuations, including temperature fluctuations. He highlighted that Morocco has experienced a long-term drought with consecutive years of rising temperatures.

In 2022, record-breaking temperatures were recorded, followed by similarly extreme temperatures in 2020 and 2017. The Moroccan Meteorological Service declared 2022 the hottest year in Morocco in 40 years, with temperatures surpassing the climatic average between 1981 and 2010 by approximately 1.63 degrees Celsius.

The current year has also witnessed high temperatures, with temperatures reaching 50.4 degrees Celsius and persisting into the autumn and winter seasons.

These climate changes fall within the context of global climate fluctuations, which have become increasingly pronounced, leading to rising temperatures and more frequent extreme weather events worldwide.

In terms of the sectors affected by these fluctuations, Bentaleb emphasized that agriculture is the most impacted, particularly due to deteriorating water resources that no longer meet the needs of the population. This situation forces residents to seek underground water resources, further depleting them.

The fluctuating climate threatens future food security, contributes to increased prices of agricultural products, and affects the industrial and tourism sectors as well.

Bentaleb called for the rationalization of water resources and awareness campaigns to conserve them. He praised measures taken by Morocco, such as desalination of Mediterranean water and water transfer projects between regions.

Morocco currently operates nine desalination plants producing approximately 147 million cubic meters annually, in addition to three plants producing water for agricultural and industrial use.

Adapting to climate change and exploring alternative activities while conserving natural resources, especially in drought-affected areas like oases and mountainous regions, is imperative.

Warning of the looming crisis, Moroccan Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries, Rural Development, Water, and Forests, Mohamed Sadiki, announced on April 16th that the kingdom would lose 20% of its cultivated land this year due to drought.

Nizar Baraka, Moroccan Minister of Equipment, Transport, and Water, cautioned in March that the water stress situation is sounding the alarm due to worsening water scarcity.

Baraka stressed the importance of conserving water and responsible use, especially as Morocco faces its fifth consecutive year of drought, with serious risks to the agricultural sector, which represents the backbone of the kingdom’s GDP.

Recently, the government announced the cessation of drinking water supply to the most affected drought areas, signaling repercussions for both humans and vegetation.

Morocco attributes water scarcity to declining rainfall in recent years, with an annual deficit of one billion cubic meters. The decrease in rainfall has led to a significant reduction in river levels, including the Moulouya River, which has been unable to reach its mouth for the first time in its history due to severe drought and excessive consumption.

In response, the government launched a national water supply program for drinking and irrigation purposes from 2020 to 2027, with investments totaling 115 billion dirhams.

While Morocco had an average water allocation of 2500 cubic meters per capita in 1960, the current annual allocation is less than 650 cubic meters, expected to decrease to less than 500 cubic meters by 2030.

Morocco boasts 150 large dams with a storage capacity of 19.1 billion cubic meters, along with 17 dams under construction, 137 medium dams, and 129 small dams, according to government data.