France’s Exports to Algeria in Freefall: Paris Faces Catastrophic Losses Amidst Diplomatic Rift
BY: Dr. Hana Saada
Algiers, Algeria | February 12th, 2025 — The deepening diplomatic crisis between Algeria and France has reached a critical economic turning point, as the latter’s exports to its former colony plummet to unprecedented levels. Once a dominant force in Algeria’s agricultural imports, France now finds itself sidelined, with figures showing a near-collapse in trade volumes—an outcome largely attributed to deteriorating bilateral relations and shifting Algerian market preferences.
A Waning French Influence in Algeria’s Market
A recent investigative report by L’Opinion, a French daily that has maintained notable access to Algerian leadership, has shed light on the economic ramifications of the diplomatic fallout. The newspaper, which recently conducted an exclusive interview with President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, revealed that the ongoing crisis has inflicted severe damage on French trade interests in Algeria.
Once the second-largest supplier of agri-food products to Algeria, France enjoyed a firm grip over the country’s import needs, providing nearly 14% of its total agricultural supplies up until the early 2000s. This dominance extended across key sectors, including cereals, dairy products, livestock, poultry, and processed foods. However, the situation has taken a dramatic turn, with trade volumes nosediving over the past two years.
According to L’Opinion, France’s agricultural exports to Algeria totaled €1.3 billion in 2022. By the end of 2023, this figure had been slashed in half, plummeting to €628 million, with 2024 projections indicating a continued freefall. Industry experts warn that by 2025, these numbers could approach absolute zero—a devastating blow to French exporters.
The Crumbling French Wheat Monopoly
France’s grip on Algeria’s wheat market, once near-total, has disintegrated in record time. In 2018, France supplied 80–90% of Algeria’s wheat imports, delivering approximately 5.4 million tons. However, by 2021, this figure had more than halved to 2.1 million tons, and by 2023, it had plunged to a mere 608,000 tons. Analysts anticipate that 2024 will see yet another sharp decline, potentially reducing France’s wheat exports to Algeria to negligible levels.
The collapse of France’s wheat market in Algeria coincides with a growing preference for alternative suppliers, particularly Russia. The shift was starkly highlighted on October 9, 2024, when the Algerian Office of Cereals (OAIC)—the state body responsible for grain imports—excluded French wheat from its procurement tenders. The move, perceived as a direct consequence of the diplomatic dispute between Algiers and Paris, sent shockwaves through France’s grain export sector. By December 24, 2024, French exporters had been completely shut out, with Algeria now sourcing the bulk of its wheat from the Black Sea region, primarily Russia and Ukraine.
A Political and Economic Fallout
The exclusion of French wheat followed a series of escalating tensions between the two nations. A turning point came in July 2024, when France officially shifted its stance on Western Sahara, aligning itself with Morocco’s self-rule proposal—a move that Algeria vehemently opposed. The diplomatic standoff led to Algeria recalling its ambassador from Paris, marking a definitive rupture in relations.
However, the impact of the fallout extends beyond grains. France’s once-lucrative red meat exports to Algeria have similarly been wiped out since July 2024. The same applies to dairy products, where exports between January and November 2024 saw a staggering 25% drop compared to the previous year. The broader French agri-food sector, including processed products, has been left in disarray, with many companies struggling to maintain access to a market that was once considered a guaranteed stronghold.
A Crisis of Competitiveness or a Geopolitical Reckoning?
Beyond politics, economic logic appears to have played a role in Algeria’s decision-making. French wheat has long been criticized for its inferior quality and inflated prices compared to Russian and Ukrainian alternatives. The sudden pivot away from French imports, therefore, appears not only to be a consequence of political rifts but also a long-overdue correction in Algeria’s trade strategy.
Industry experts in France have expressed shock at Algeria’s prolonged dependence on their grain, given its suboptimal value-for-money proposition. With the doors now firmly closing, French agribusinesses are facing an existential crisis, struggling to replace a once-guaranteed export market that is now firmly shifting toward the East.
France’s Diminishing Economic Leverage
The broader implications of this trade collapse signal a watershed moment in Algerian-French relations. Historically, France leveraged economic interdependence as a tool of influence over Algeria, its former colony. However, Algeria’s decisive break from French trade dominance underscores its growing geopolitical and economic autonomy, as it diversifies its partnerships with emerging global powers such as Russia, China, and Türkiye.
With no signs of diplomatic reconciliation on the horizon, and with Algeria solidifying its trade relations elsewhere, France faces the grim reality of losing its once-privileged position in one of North Africa’s most dynamic economies. The message from Algiers is clear: economic coercion and political condescension will no longer secure a place in Algeria’s markets.
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