Russian Expert Igor Yushkov: 7th GECF Summit to Serve as Platform for Gas Market Stabilization
BY: Dr. Hana Saada
ALGIERS- The 7th Summit of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) in Algiers, scheduled for today, will provide a platform to discuss recent changes in the global energy landscape, particularly during the years 2022 and 2023, asserted Russian energy expert Igor Yushkov. He did not rule out the possibility of “common actions” by participating countries to stabilize the gas market.
In an interview with APS, Mr. Yushkov, an academic and analyst at the Russian Foundation for Energy Security, affirmed that “the 7th GECF summit in Algeria will serve as a platform to discuss ongoing changes in the global gas market, including the issue of climate and the actions of Western countries actively pushing for decarbonization and the development of renewable energy sources.”
In this context, the Russian expert highlighted the main points to be examined during the 7th GECF summit, ensuring that the forum’s stakeholders should address the issue of global gas demand in the coming years due to the accelerated decarbonization policy, particularly by the European Union, advocated for several years.
“The EU is the most active in terms of decarbonization and the development of renewable energy sources. This is logical because European countries do not want to increase their dependence on energy imports. They prefer to invest in renewable energies,” explained Mr. Yushkov, emphasizing that “this policy had a significant impact on the global gas market.”
Simultaneously, companies from gas-exporting countries, which have invested billions of dollars in developing new gas fields or constructing gas transportation infrastructure (LNG plants or pipelines), may fail to recoup their investments due to the risk of declining demand, a potential oversupply leading to gas price decreases, oil, and coal. Such forecasts are expected to be discussed during this 7th summit, which also, according to the same expert, presents an opportunity to review changes in the gas market during the years 2022-2023.
“The main challenge facing the global gas industry remains instability,” he further supported, particularly citing supply shortages in the global market and price increases recorded in the context of the Ukrainian crisis. “Although the global gas market is currently stabilizing, a new wave of changes is still possible in the near future. Gas delivery disruptions could occur, leading to further price increases, especially in Europe. In Asia, especially in China, there could also be an increase in consumption,” he also explained.
“However, between 2026 and 2030, many LNG plants will be commissioned worldwide, including in the United States, Qatar, and Australia. This will lead to an increase in supply in the global market and a price decrease. And a period of low prices will reduce interest in investing in new gas projects worldwide. This means that after 2030, there will be a shortage again. These issues can be discussed and debated at the GECF summit in Algiers,” Mr. Yushkov advanced. While recalling that the Gas Exporting Countries Forum is a consultative organization, the Russian expert does not rule out the possibility that GECF countries may discuss the possibility of “common actions” in the gas markets to stabilize them in Algiers.
Regarding Algeria’s role in the gas market, Mr. Yushkov emphasized the country’s capabilities and significant opportunities for energy development, stating that it “ensures energy supply to Europe in all its forms (gas, oil, renewable energy sources, hydrogen).” Furthermore, Algeria can also propose to Europe cooperation in the electricity sector by establishing solar power plants in Algeria and developing hydrogen, Mr. Yushkov further highlighted.
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